The war in Ukraine, a fragile global order, and a growing focus on security are affecting society as a whole — not least the construction and real estate sector. On Nordbygg’s opening day, Ukraine expert and former lieutenant colonel Joakim Paasikivi shares his assessment of the situation and what it may mean for how Sweden builds, owns, and operates its critical infrastructure.
On April 21, 2026, you will take the stage at Nordbygg. What can we expect?
“News reporting is often interesting, but it rarely provides history and context. I will try to give some background on why Russia is waging war and how it seeks to reshape the world. Ukraine is part of this, but certainly not Russia’s only objective. I aim to put it into context and explain why this poses a security threat to us – and to democracy globally.”
The seminar is titled “A World in Disorder – Russia, Ukraine, and the Threats to Europe.” According to Paasikivi, the title reflects a broader shift than the war itself: the long-standing security order once taken for granted is now being challenged.
Where does the war stand right now?
“Neither side is achieving its strategic objectives, but overall it is going worse for the Russians. They are gaining small amounts of territory, but at the cost of their economy and around one million dead and wounded.”
Why does Russia continue?
“There are few alternatives. Putin has tied himself to the mast and must be able to claim a victory. They also seem to believe they can wear down the West — that we will stop supporting Ukraine. If that happens, Russia could secure a ceasefire or peace on its own terms.”
The security situation extends beyond Ukraine. Paasikivi describes a world where power is shifting and Europe must redefine its role.
“From a professional standpoint, the global situation is extremely interesting for someone like me. From every other perspective, it is alarming. We are moving toward a multipolar world in which China is increasing its influence while the U.S. is reducing its role and alienating old allies. This is problematic for liberal democracies, not least because the green transition depends on technologies where China is world-leading — which risks creating one-sided dependency. Europe is trying to find new trade patterns and partners. The key point is that the world we knew will not return. We cannot simply view ourselves as victims of a difficult world; we must act.”
For the construction and real estate industry, these developments have tangible consequences. Paasikivi argues that robustness is not just a societal concern but a business-critical issue — and that the private sector plays a central role in civil preparedness.
“Total defense largely consists of companies, which play a crucial role before, during, and after any potential crisis. Well-functioning, profitable businesses are vital to Sweden. Being prepared is good business — both financially and in terms of resilience.”
Opportunities and risks for the industry?
“When infrastructure is being developed, the construction sector becomes a key actor — but it must be ready. That means having sufficient machinery, the ability to operate in locations other than where you normally work, and doing so in competition with everyone else.”
Preparedness also involves urban and infrastructure planning. Paasikivi highlights the importance of avoiding a single point of failure — for example, by not routing water, sewage, electricity, and communications through the same corridor. The war in Ukraine has demonstrated how vulnerable infrastructure can be — and how critical rapid repair capabilities are.
“Construction preparedness is extremely important. We must be able to quickly rebuild damaged, vital infrastructure — something Ukraine has managed remarkably well. Ironically, this is partly because they were not as wealthy as we are and therefore had not dismantled older systems. In Sweden, we have streamlined everything, relied on single competencies, and adopted ‘just-in-time’ models. We need greater redundancy to improve endurance and our ability to reprioritize.”
To ensure the sector is ready in the event of conflict, Paasikivi sees a need for clearer security procedures and reduced vulnerability — from controlling access to construction sites to managing and monitoring material flows.
“A comprehensive security mindset is required across the entire organization — functions that ensure things are done correctly and that substandard materials are not used. You also need to know who is on site and avoid long chains of subcontractors.”
How can organizations work strategically to reduce vulnerability?
“When society comes under severe strain, cooperation is essential — even with competitors. There are examples of this in several Ukrainian industries: people must always be able to withdraw money regardless of their bank, and mobile phones must work even if one network goes down. If you help each other, more people will survive — both physically and commercially.”
In closing, Joakim Paasikivi does not want to leave the audience with concern alone
“We don’t know what lies ahead — only that we won’t return to where we were. But that does not mean we are powerless victims on rough seas. A strong society is more resilient, and fortunately Sweden and the EU have made many good decisions to rebuild both military and civil capacity. Internationally, Sweden is regarded as a frontrunner in total defense. There is no point in being discouraged — take control of what you can and contribute.”
