Tor Borg, Head of Analysis at Byggfakta: “There are glimpses of hope in the construction and property industry 2024”

As Head of Analysis at Byggfakta it is everyday work for Tor Borg to immerse himself in the industry’s latest numbers and the possible effects of these. His goal is to give fact-based decision-making support for management teams in the construction and property industry. To Nordbygg, he here offers the most important trends that he believes will affect the industry in 2024.

In the Spring of 2024, Nordbygg - the largest fair in the Nordics for the construction and property industry, is back with pomp and circumstance.
 
– As an analyst, it is very exciting to meet the industry in situ and hear how it is intending to handle all the existing challenges. I always take great pleasure in individual meetings and having fun insights in the most unexpected visits and discussions, says Tor Borg, Head of Analysis at Byggfakta.
 
Since the industry last gathered at Nordbygg 2022, war, rising inflation and high interest rates have upset the apple cart regarding industry optimism.  But, the oncoming Spring shines gleams of hope. 

The drop in residential construction is levelling out

Tor Borg deems that the negative trend quickly could turn around if the world situation should change.
 
– World politics are of course crucial for the industry and for the well-being of society as a whole. But I am not only seeing gloomy trends at the moment.  For housing, we for example see that ROT projects (renovating at home with tax deductions, transl. note) are holding up well, the eagerness to renovate doesn’t seem to have been stifled.
 
For residential construction, perhaps the most affected part of the sector, he also sees a clear break in the trend.
   
– The collapse in numbers of new constructions seem s to have been mitigated and even levelled out. Even if it is levelling out at a much lower level than a couple of years ago, it is still a positive break in the trend in that it does not keep dropping.

Interest rates are crucial

Another important levelling out is the interest rate situation.
 
– If the interest rates are levelling out, as they seem to be, it will affect the willingness to invest for the whole industry. Demand is driven by what it costs to borrow money, so this is an issue that I keep close tabs on. Investments are needed not least to achieve the sustainability goals. But right now, 2024 does not seem to be such a black year as 2023, and that gives some hope for the future even though nothing about the future can be said with absolute certainty, Borg concludes.